AC Milan at Lazio - Online Soccer Picks

By  Jonathan Willis

Friday, November 23rd, 2018

Both AC Milan and Lazio are in the fight for one of Italy’s four Champions League spots that might as well be two considering the success of Juventus and Napoli. Each team just missed out last year, qualifying for the Europa League instead, with Lazio losing a tiebreaker to Inter Milan for fourth and AC Milan finishing in sixth place. That could lead to a lively, open game when these teams meet in Rome’s old Olympic stadium this Sunday.

Don't miss the Italian Serie A action from the Stadio Olimpico in Rome, Italy at 12 p.m. ET on Sunday, November 25, 2018. Catch every moment of the match live on ESPN News.

Italian Serie A Betting Odds at

AC Milan +331

Lazio -125

Draw +279

Over/Under 2.5 and 3

Odds Analysis

Coming into this match, AC Milan are in fifth place with a 6-3-3 record through the first third of the season. They have been unable to top the best teams in Serie A thus far, losing to Napoli, Juventus, and city rival Internazionale, but they have been able to pick up results against all other opponents and already have a nice win over Roma to their credit. AC Milan won three in a row at one point prior to the international break, knocking off Sampdoria, Genoa, and Udinese in the span of eight days, but those victories were buttressed by losses. They are also right in the thick of things when it comes to qualifying for the knockout rounds of the Europa League, jockeying with Olympiacos and Real Betis.

Lazio have already ensured their place in the next round of the Europa League following their second win over Marseille, so now they can focus solely on Serie A for a while. Lazio are in fourth place with a record of 7-1-4, but they have yet to beat any of the top teams in Italy. They lost in successive weeks to Napoli and Juventus at the start of the campaign, and they have proceeded to lose to Roma and Inter Milan as well. Only their continued focus against lower-tier teams has them in contention, but that’s a credit to their manager.

Injury Report

There are a number of injuries to report on the side of AC Milan, and they have been hamstrung due to the attack on their depth. Giacomo Bonaventura has been declared out for the season after tearing a knee ligament, while Alessio Romagnoli, Mateo Pablo Musacchio, Lucas Biglia, and Mattia Caldara have all been declared out for at least another month. Hakan Calhanoglu and Emanuele Torrasi look close to returning to action, though neither has been fully given the green light, and Ivan Strinic’s status continues to be monitored.

Lazio might not have Riza Durmisi available as he battles the remnants of a flu bug, while Lucas Leiva’s availability is in doubt due to a groin injury. Felipe Caicedo has returned to training after a thigh injury suffered right before the international break. Sergej Milinkovic-Savic is listed as doubtful because of a knee issue, but he might be held out an additional period of time as the club might be set to move him to an English side.

Player to Watch

Ciro Immobile has been fantastic for Lazio this season. The homegrown star has seen his value skyrocket after notching eight goals in 12 matches, and he has been responsible for nearly half of his club’s goals this season. He is still receiving criticism from the press as his play on the national team has not been as sharp, but he has been fantastic for Lazio.

Serie A Prop Bet – Lazio Over 1.5 Goals at -129

Italian domestic matches are typically lower scoring, but AC Milan matches have been relatively high scoring this season. AC Milan have allowed 16 goals, which puts them in the bottom half of the league in that category, but they have been fine on the attack. Look for these two to punch and counterpunch and not move into a holding pattern.

Free Soccer Betting Pick

The over is a good bet here, and so is Lazio given AC Milan’s injury woes. You can only handle so many injuries as a club, and AC Milan are going to be razor thin in terms of their depth for a while.

Soccer Betting Bonus

Italian Serie A Odds: Lazio 2, AC Milan 1

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